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Will mass protests against Trump's agenda continue to grow in scale through 2026?

Probably not
Mass protests will not continue to grow in scale; they will plateau and experience episodic spikes around specific administrative actions
medium confidence

Key findings

Based on historical precedent, sustained growth of protest movements is rare and requires specific conditions not yet fully evident. Historically, US protest movements follow a pattern
Historical patterns of protest decay, combined with likely fragmentation, repression, and normalization of Trump’s presence, outweigh current momentum.
Historical protest decay curves, coalition fragmentation, protest fatigue after 20+ months of the administration, aggressive state repression/chilling effects, and co-optation of movement energy into 2026 midterm campaigning all point to stalling momentum, despite ongoing provocations that will...

Perspectives

The risk perspectivemedium
Historical protest decay curves, coalition fragmentation, protest fatigue after 20+ months of the administration, aggressive state repression/chilling effects, and co-optation of movement energy into 2026 midterm campaigning all point to stalling momentum, despite ongoing provocations that will generate episodic surges.
The historical perspectivemedium
Based on historical precedent, sustained growth of protest movements is rare and requires specific conditions not yet fully evident. Historically, US protest movements follow a pattern
The quantitative perspectivemedium
Historical patterns of protest decay, combined with likely fragmentation, repression, and normalization of Trump’s presence, outweigh current momentum.
Strong consensus
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